What the Market Is Telling You Right Now — and Why You Should Be Listening
- Will Everett
- Apr 5
- 9 min read
Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or legal advice. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any financial decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.
Let me start with something most financial content won't say plainly: you don't need to be an investor to care about what the stock market is doing. If you have a job, a 401(k), a mortgage, a savings account, or plans to buy anything significant in the next 12 months — the market is already talking to you. The question is whether you understand the language.
These last few weeks that language has gotten loud and this is my take on what the everyday person should be paying attention to.
Here's What's Happening
The Dow Jones and Nasdaq both dipped in and out of correction territory this week; the S&P 500 is sitting right on the edge; the U.S. is at war with Iran; and the stock market is looking real Q1 2025-ish in many sectors. You know things are tumultuous when even under these circumstances the likes of Warren Buffett say publicly that stocks aren't cheap enough yet for him to step in. (Source: CNBC, April 3, 2026)
Fun Fact: Berkshire Hathaway shares skyrocketed 5,502,284% between when Buffett took over in 1965 and the end of 2024, according to Berkshire's most recent annual report.
And this week ahead is loaded which is good for knowledge gain.
Wednesday we get Federal Reserve meeting minutes.
Thursday brings final GDP numbers and the PCE inflation index.
Friday delivers the Consumer Price Index, wage data, and consumer confidence to pair with our most recent jobs report.
Every single one of those numbers can move markets, but before we talk about what to do — let's make sure to understand what we're actually looking at.
The Glossary Nobody Gave You
"Correction territory" — A decline of 10% or more from recent highs in the stock market is often referred to as a "correction". So when you're hearing analyst on the news say that the market is "getting close to correction territory" they mean that one of the major indexes (the DJIA, the S&P, or NASDAQ) are getting close to dropping 10% from the last max price per share we have seen. Sounds scary, right? Well, historically, it's routine. The S&P 500 has experienced around 38 "corrections" since the 1950s — roughly one every 1.84 years. The news that should ease those scaries is that the market has recovered from every single one. With 0 exception... (Source: Kiplinger)
The Dow Jones (DJIA) — Tracks 30 major American companies. The oldest, most-cited index. Limited snapshot, but the one most people mean when they say "the market."
The Nasdaq — Tech-heavy. Over 3,000 companies including Amazon, Google, Meta, Tesla. When it swings hard, tech is usually driving it.
The S&P 500 — 500 of the largest U.S. companies across every sector. The most accurate single measure of the overall market. If you have a 401(k), you probably have significant exposure here.
FOMC Minutes — The FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee and It’s a key part of the Federal Reserve (the U.S. central bank) as it is responsible for setting monetary policy, especially interest rates.
Their decisions directly impact:
Mortgage rates
Credit card interest
Car loans
Savings account yields
Stock market behavior
Markets obsess over these meeting minutes because they signal where things are headed. In the case of this week's minutes, we should expect a signal on where interest rates are headed.
GDP — or Gross Domestic Product, is the total value of everything the U.S. produces. Growing GDP means the economy is expanding. Two consecutive quarters of shrinkage is the technical definition of a recession...
PCE Price Index — or the Personal Consumptions Expenditures Price Indes is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. When it's elevated, rates stay high. When it cools toward their 2% target, they have room to cut. PCE tracks how much prices are changing for goods and services that people actually buy, including:
Housing
Food
Healthcare
Transportation
Services (like insurance, travel, etc.)
CPI (Consumer Price Index) — If you ask me, this is the inflation number you actually feel. Groceries, gas, housing, healthcare. When CPI is up, your dollar buys less and this week we are going to get the data on how prices are fairing for the everyday citizen along with how wages are doing for the same...
Average Hourly Earnings — are wages keeping up with inflation or falling behind? This number tells you that. If inflation rises faster than your paycheck, you're losing ground even with a raise...
Michigan Consumer Sentiment — A popular survey from the University of Michigan that measures how optimistic or pessimistic people feel about their finances. It's one of the more important indicators because how people feel about money tends to predict how they spend it...
Three Case Studies for Insight
2000 — The Dot-Com Crash
The Nasdaq peaked March 10, 2000 at 5,048. By October 2002 it had fallen 78%, getting as low as 1,200 USD and wiping out more than $5 trillion in market value. (Source: Goldman Sachs; Google Finance)
Here's the part nobody talks about: everyday investors accelerated their buying at exactly the wrong time. In 2000, as the market was collapsing, individual investors poured $260 billion into U.S. equity funds — up from $176 billion the year before. By 2002, 100 million individual investors had lost $5 trillion. (Source: TED Ideas, "A Revealing Look at the Dot-Com Bubble")
The people who understood what a correction signal meant protected themselves by getting liquid (aka pulling some of their money out of the markets). Others simply road the storm with enough tenacity to see the other side (meaning they just kept their money put until the tough years were behind them). And as is the unfortunate case in every downturn, others found out a hard truth: when it comes to investing, most times losing is just a matter of selling at the wrong time...
For perspective: since that October 2002 low of around $1,200, the Nasdaq has gained over 5,700%. As of April 2, 2026 the Nasdaq $21,879.19...
2008 — The Global Financial Crisis ("GFC") or The Last Great Recession
The S&P 500 fell 57% from its October 2007 peak to its March 2009 trough. Unemployment doubled — from under 5% to 10%. Home prices fell 30% on average. (Source: Federal Reserve History, "The Great Recession")
The warning signs were visible months before the bottom fell out — deteriorating housing data, tightening credit, falling consumer sentiment. The people who read those signals early made better decisions. Everyone else got the news in September 2008 when Lehman collapsed (and "The Big Short" was birthed).
Housing advocates were sounding the alarm as early as 2004, warning Federal Reserve officials of a potential collapse and naming Lehman Brothers specifically as a risk. They were ignored. (Source: ABC News) Investor Michael Burry — the real person behind The Big Short — identified the crisis by 2005 by simply reading the loan data. He bet against the housing market and made $100 million when it collapsed. He didn't have inside information. He just read the numbers and data that was publicly available.
When Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008 — the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history at the time — it had $600 billion in bonds outstanding. Its collapse froze credit markets globally almost overnight, because no one knew which other institutions were exposed. (Source: Wikipedia, "Subprime Mortgage Crisis") The DJIA fell 53% between October 2007 and March 2009, and estimates suggest one in four U.S. households lost 75% or more of their net worth. (Source: Wikipedia, "2008 Financial Crisis")
For perspective: the S&P 500 got as low as ~$735 in February 2009 — it's lowest month during the GFC. On March 20, 2020 — the S&P's worst day of the COVID-19 pandemic — it was at $2,304.92 per share...
2020 — COVID Crash and Recovery
If you're reading this then you can likely recall exactly what life felt like during the COVID pandemic of 2020... The S&P 500 fell 34% in just 33 days — the fastest bear market in history. (Source: American Century Investments)
Then it recovered in four months — the fastest recovery of any crash in 150 years. (Source: Morningstar)
The people who panic-sold at the bottom locked in losses and missed the entire recovery. The people who kept contributing to their 401(k)s during the drop came out significantly ahead in just a few months.
Same pattern, every time. Financial literacy is the difference between reacting and deciding and an essential way to gain financial literacy is by staying informed and educated on the financial markets.
What You Should Actually Do Right Now
1. Don't confuse a correction with a catastrophe.
A 10% drop is historically normal — one every 1.84 years on average. (Source: Kiplinger) According to U.S. Bank, the average correction resolves in about 17 days, though some run longer depending on underlying economic conditions. (Source: U.S. Bank Asset Management, 2026) The market has recovered from all 38 corrections since the 1950s. Patience is a virtue; but strategy is key. To be best equipped to deploy the best strategy stay abreast of the financial news circulating on a weekly basis in times like this.
2. Don't make big moves in either direction.
Selling in fear at the bottom and buying aggressively into a false bounce are historically the two worst financial decisions. I'm human and I've made them so I know that it's nearly impossible to know the bottom exactly; however, there are ALWAYS signals. Carson Wealth data shows that in correction years that didn't become bear markets, the market still delivered an average 9.5% annual return — matching the long-term average since 1950. (Source: Carson Wealth) This is a moment for observation, not action.
3. Check your emergency fund before you check your portfolio.
My take is that you need at least six months of living expenses in cash — not in the market, not locked in a retirement account. Accessible in a moment's notice. This is what separates a market correction from a personal financial crisis for the everyday citizen. If your emergency fund isn't funded to that level I recommend you start there and worry about nothing else until that's done. That's the highest-return move you can make in times such as now.
4. Keep contributing to your 401(k).
The greatest lesson I ever learned in my investing journey is the power of dollar cost averaging. "Dollar-costing" as it's called is simply the act of investing the same amount of money at a conistent frequency over time. For example, I take $300 every two weeks and buy a select single or set of stocks for 6 months. The power in this practice is that you buy the stock(s) at different prices everytime you purchase them (in most cases) and overtime you get to realize that you normalized your losses(and profits, to be honest, but it's always a win in the loss category). This is a sure way to ensure you have not bought a stock "at the wrong time" and it's a safe bet to getting it at a low point. During a correction, you're buying more shares at lower prices by virtue of the times. That's dollar-cost averaging — one of the most reliable wealth-building strategies available to everyday people. I read in The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham (and my favorite investing book), if you miss just the 10 best market days in a year, your average annual return since 2000 drops from 9.5% to negative 12.5%. (Source: Carson Wealth) The best and worst days happen close together. If you stop contributing in your 401k when you hear panic in the market you'll likely miss both...
5. Watch Friday's CPI number closely.
The Fed cut rates three times in 2025, bringing the rate to 3.5–3.75% — but they're divided on what comes next, and inflation data will decide it. (Source: Experian, April 2026) If Friday's CPI cools, rate cuts become more likely — cheaper mortgages, lower credit card rates, more breathing room. If it's stubborn, rates stay elevated and debt stays expensive.
6. Treat debt as the real threat right now.
In a high-rate environment with market volatility, consumer debt is the most dangerous thing on your balance sheet. Credit card APRs are running 20–25%. Paying that down is a guaranteed 20–25% return — nothing in the market comes close right now
7. Pay attention to the war in Iran.
Now is no time to be misinformed. The news about the U.S. conflict in Iran is changing every day and it is having major implications on everything from the price of oil to the stock market. Don't go down a toxic rabbit hole concerning yourself with things out of your control but don't ignore the headlines, either. Stay aware of each side's positions and rhetoric and watch for signals and trends.
The Bottom Line
Markets aren't just a ticker on your phone or Bloomberg. They're a live signal about the health of the economy you live and work in. When they correct, they're processing real information — about corporate earnings, inflation, consumer behavior, geopolitical risk, and so much more. That information flows downstream into things like the job market, mortgage rates, the cost of your groceries and gas, and the availability of credit.
Over 90% of rolling 3-year S&P 500 returns have been positive since 1950. After big drawdowns, that number approaches 100%. (Source: LPL Financial) The market isn't broken. It's breathing.
The people who come through volatile markets best aren't the ones with the most money, necessarily. They're often the ones with the most clarity — about what they own, what they owe, what they need, and what they can afford to wait for.
That clarity is a Financial Health KPI worth tracking every single week.
Will Everett is the author of The KPIs of Life. Follow along at thekpisoflife.com and on socials @thekpisoflife.
Comments